New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals 56% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Capitals:
- Home Field Advantage. Capitals are 5-1 at home this season; Devils are 2-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days. Capitals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Devils (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating. Capitals ELO 1561 vs Devils ELO 1519 (diff: +42)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Devils 4-2.
Our model predicted the Capitals would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Capitals and was a notable factor: Capitals are 5-1 at home this season; Devils are 2-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Injuries favored the Devils and was a notable factor: Devils healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Capitals 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Rest Days favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Devils (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Capitals have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Devils have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
- InjuriesFavors New Jersey Devils
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Capitals
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Capitals
Devils
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Capitals
Devils
Key Players
Devils
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Capitals has a 56% win probability, while Devils has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.