Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Islanders are 2-2 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Islanders 5-3.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 52% confidence, but the Lightning pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Islanders are 2-2 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Islanders ELO 1463 vs Lightning ELO 1527 (diff: -64)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (3-1) in better form than Islanders (2-2)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Islanders have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Lightning have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Islanders
Lightning
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 52% win probability, while Lightning has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.