Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Injuries. Lightning healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 3-1 at home this season; Wild are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Lightning ELO 1523 vs Wild ELO 1501 (diff: +22)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Wild 3-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 66% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning are 3-1 at home this season; Wild are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning ELO 1523 vs Wild ELO 1501 (diff: +22)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Lightning have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Wild have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Lightning
Wild
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Wild
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 66% win probability, while Wild has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.