Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 56% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Recent Form. Senators (2-1) in better form than Flyers (0-2)
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 1-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-4 on the road
- ELO Rating. Senators ELO 1508 vs Flyers ELO 1477 (diff: +31)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Flyers 2-1.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Flyers and was a major factor: Flyers healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators (2-1) in better form than Flyers (0-2)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 1-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-4 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Flyers have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Philadelphia Flyers
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- ELO RatingFavors Ottawa Senators
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Senators
Flyers
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Flyers healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Flyers
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 56% win probability, while Flyers has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.