NHL report card: week of 2026-10-05 (2026-27)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
62.0%
hit rate
0.236
Brier score
31 of 50 decided
Season to date
59.1%
hit rate
0.244
Brier score
104 of 176 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Maple Leafs at AvalancheCOL 77.9% pre-game — final COL 3–TOR 6
- Jets at PenguinsPIT 74.2% pre-game — final PIT 2–WPG 3
- Sharks at BluesSTL 68.0% pre-game — final STL 2–SJS 3
- Oilers at DucksANA 68.0% pre-game — final ANA 2–EDM 5
- Wild at PanthersFLA 67.8% pre-game — final FLA 1–MIN 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Kings at Golden KnightsVGK 78.1% pre-game — final VGK 2–LAK 1
- Canucks at RangersNYR 76.9% pre-game — final NYR 6–VAN 2
- Flyers at BruinsBOS 76.0% pre-game — final BOS 5–PHI 1
- Maple Leafs at Golden KnightsVGK 73.8% pre-game — final VGK 4–TOR 3
- Canucks at DevilsNJD 73.7% pre-game — final NJD 4–VAN 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flames at Kraken Mon, Oct 5 | SEA 69.1% · CGY 30.9% | SEA 6–CGY 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Ducks Mon, Oct 5 | ANA 60.0% · FLA 40.0% | ANA 3–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Canucks Mon, Oct 5 | VAN 31.6% · VGK 68.4% | VAN 2–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Lightning Mon, Oct 5 | TBL 61.1% · PHI 38.9% | TBL 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Senators at Bruins Mon, Oct 5 | BOS 66.7% · OTT 33.3% | BOS 1–OTT 4 | Miss |
| Jets at Penguins Mon, Oct 5 | PIT 74.2% · WPG 25.8% | PIT 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Sharks at Stars Tue, Oct 6 | DAL 57.3% · SJS 42.7% | DAL 5–SJS 0 | Hit |
| Predators at Maple Leafs Tue, Oct 6 | TOR 42.7% · NSH 57.3% | TOR 5–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Senators at Red Wings Tue, Oct 6 | DET 48.0% · OTT 52.0% | DET 5–OTT 3 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Devils Tue, Oct 6 | NJD 43.0% · UTA 57.0% | NJD 3–UTA 5 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Tue, Oct 6 | MTL 44.6% · CAR 55.4% | MTL 4–CAR 6 | Hit |
| Wild at Sabres Tue, Oct 6 | BUF 38.7% · MIN 61.3% | BUF 3–MIN 2 | Miss |
| Islanders at Rangers Tue, Oct 6 | NYR 66.9% · NYI 33.1% | NYR 5–NYI 2 | Hit |
| Blues at Blackhawks Wed, Oct 7 | CHI 59.2% · STL 40.8% | CHI 4–STL 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Kraken Wed, Oct 7 | SEA 49.5% · VGK 50.5% | SEA 2–VGK 6 | Hit |
| Panthers at Kings Wed, Oct 7 | LAK 54.8% · FLA 45.2% | LAK 1–FLA 2 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Wed, Oct 7 | WPG 45.5% · COL 54.5% | WPG 3–COL 2 | Miss |
| Penguins at Capitals Wed, Oct 7 | WSH 55.3% · PIT 44.7% | WSH 5–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Thu, Oct 8 | ANA 68.0% · EDM 32.0% | ANA 2–EDM 5 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Bruins Thu, Oct 8 | BOS 53.4% · UTA 46.6% | BOS 6–UTA 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Senators Thu, Oct 8 | OTT 55.5% · PHI 44.5% | OTT 2–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Predators at Canadiens Thu, Oct 8 | MTL 48.6% · NSH 51.4% | MTL 2–NSH 5 | Hit |
| Wild at Lightning Thu, Oct 8 | TBL 66.0% · MIN 34.0% | TBL 3–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Sabres Thu, Oct 8 | BUF 52.5% · DAL 47.5% | BUF 0–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Canucks at Hurricanes Thu, Oct 8 | CAR 72.8% · VAN 27.2% | CAR 7–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Islanders Thu, Oct 8 | NYI 66.7% · CHI 33.3% | NYI 4–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blues Fri, Oct 9 | STL 68.0% · SJS 32.0% | STL 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Flames Fri, Oct 9 | CGY 59.9% · COL 40.1% | CGY 3–COL 7 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Golden Knights Fri, Oct 9 | VGK 73.8% · TOR 26.3% | VGK 4–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Penguins at Blue Jackets Fri, Oct 9 | CBJ 68.4% · PIT 31.6% | CBJ 3–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Capitals Fri, Oct 9 | WSH 41.7% · NYR 58.3% | WSH 3–NYR 1 | Miss |
| Kraken at Red Wings Fri, Oct 9 | DET 48.1% · SEA 51.9% | DET 3–SEA 6 | Hit |
| Ducks at Jets Sat, Oct 10 | WPG 47.2% · ANA 52.8% | WPG 1–ANA 5 | Hit |
| Flyers at Bruins Sat, Oct 10 | BOS 76.0% · PHI 24.0% | BOS 5–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Canucks at Devils Sat, Oct 10 | NJD 73.7% · VAN 26.3% | NJD 4–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Oilers at Sharks Sat, Oct 10 | SJS 61.7% · EDM 38.3% | SJS 1–EDM 3 | Miss |
| Wild at Panthers Sat, Oct 10 | FLA 67.8% · MIN 32.2% | FLA 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Penguins Sat, Oct 10 | PIT 62.6% · DAL 37.4% | PIT 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Sabres Sat, Oct 10 | BUF 41.4% · UTA 58.6% | BUF 1–UTA 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Avalanche Sat, Oct 10 | COL 77.9% · TOR 22.1% | COL 3–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Canadiens Sat, Oct 10 | MTL 45.9% · DET 54.1% | MTL 1–DET 0 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Blues Sat, Oct 10 | STL 36.7% · CBJ 63.3% | STL 5–CBJ 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Senators Sat, Oct 10 | OTT 60.6% · NSH 39.4% | OTT 3–NSH 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blackhawks Sat, Oct 10 | CHI 39.2% · CAR 60.8% | CHI 2–CAR 5 | Hit |
| Lightning at Islanders Sat, Oct 10 | NYI 52.1% · TBL 47.9% | NYI 3–TBL 5 | Miss |
| Kings at Golden Knights Sun, Oct 11 | VGK 78.1% · LAK 21.9% | VGK 2–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Ducks at Flames Sun, Oct 11 | CGY 48.5% · ANA 51.5% | CGY 2–ANA 4 | Hit |
| Kraken at Capitals Sun, Oct 11 | WSH 58.6% · SEA 41.4% | WSH 3–SEA 5 | Miss |
| Canucks at Rangers Sun, Oct 11 | NYR 76.9% · VAN 23.1% | NYR 6–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sun, Oct 11 | PHI 35.4% · CAR 64.6% | PHI 1–CAR 4 | Hit |
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