Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 78% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Injuries. Avalanche healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 6 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-2 on the road
- Recent Form. Avalanche (3-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (2-2)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Avalanche 6-3.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 78% confidence, but the Maple Leafs pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Avalanche and was a major factor: Avalanche healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 6 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a major factor: Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-2 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (3-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (2-2)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Avalanche have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Maple Leafs have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Avalanche healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 6 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage
Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-2 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 78% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 22% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.