Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights 74% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Golden Knights:
- Injuries. Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 2-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Golden Knights ELO 1559 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1467 (diff: +92)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Maple Leafs 4-3.
Our model predicted the Golden Knights would win with 74% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Golden Knights and was a major factor: Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a notable factor: Golden Knights are 2-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights ELO 1559 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1467 (diff: +92)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Golden Knights have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Maple Leafs have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- ELO RatingFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Recent FormFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 74% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 26% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.