Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Penguins:
- Injuries. Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Penguins are 2-2 at home this season; Stars are 3-1 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Penguins defeated the Stars 2-1.
Our model predicted the Penguins would win with 63% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Penguins and was a major factor: Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Penguins and was a contributing factor: Penguins are 2-2 at home this season; Stars are 3-1 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Stars and was a contributing factor: Stars rest advantage (2 days rest) over Penguins (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Penguins have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Stars have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Penguins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Rest DaysFavors Dallas Stars
- Recent FormFavors Dallas Stars
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Penguins
Stars
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Penguins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Penguins has a 63% win probability, while Stars has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.