Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Sabres:
- Home Field Advantage. Sabres are 3-1 at home this season; Stars are 2-1 on the road
- Recent Form. Sabres (2-1) in better form than Stars (1-2)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Stars defeated the Sabres 4-0.
Our model predicted the Sabres would win with 53% confidence, but the Stars pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Stars and was a notable factor: Stars less affected by injuries: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 5 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Sabres players matter...
- Home Field Advantage favored the Sabres and was a notable factor: Sabres are 3-1 at home this season; Stars are 2-1 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Sabres and was a contributing factor: Sabres (2-1) in better form than Stars (1-2)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Sabres have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Stars have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Stars won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Dallas Stars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Sabres
- Recent FormFavors Buffalo Sabres
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Sabres
Stars
Odds by Source
| Source | Sabres | Stars | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | +101 | -115 | +1.5 | 6 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 | +1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Sabres
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Sabres has a 53% win probability, while Stars has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.