Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Capitals:
- Home Field Advantage. Capitals are 4-0 at home this season; Kraken are 3-2 on the road
- ELO Rating. Capitals ELO 1572 vs Kraken ELO 1484 (diff: +88)
- Recent Form. Capitals (3-1) in better form than Kraken (3-2)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kraken defeated the Capitals 5-3.
Our model predicted the Capitals would win with 59% confidence, but the Kraken pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Capitals and was a notable factor: Capitals are 4-0 at home this season; Kraken are 3-2 on the road
- Injuries favored the Kraken and was a notable factor: Kraken healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Capitals 4 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals ELO 1572 vs Kraken ELO 1484 (diff: +88)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Capitals have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Kraken have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kraken won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
- InjuriesFavors Seattle Kraken
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormFavors Washington Capitals
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Capitals
Kraken
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Kraken
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Capitals has a 59% win probability, while Kraken has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.