Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Capitals:
- Home Field Advantage. Capitals are 2-0 at home this season; Penguins are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Capitals ELO 1562 vs Penguins ELO 1511 (diff: +51)
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Penguins 5-3.
Our model predicted the Capitals would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Capitals and was a notable factor: Capitals are 2-0 at home this season; Penguins are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Penguins and was a contributing factor: Penguins (2-1) in better form than Capitals (1-1)
- ELO Rating favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals ELO 1562 vs Penguins ELO 1511 (diff: +51)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Capitals have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Penguins have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Capitals
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Capitals
Penguins
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Penguins
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Capitals has a 55% win probability, while Penguins has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.