NHL2026-27 season
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals
Head-to-head win probability for NHL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
This season
2026-27 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
0%
0 of 1 decided games
Meetings graded
1
2026-27
Correct calls
0
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent Form — Lightning (7-3) in better form than Wild (6-3)
- ELO Rating — Wild ELO 1508 vs Lightning ELO 1536 (diff: -28)
Washington Capitals
- Home Field Advantage — Capitals are 6-2 at home this season; Panthers are 4-6 on the road
- Injuries — Capitals less affected by injuries: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 4 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Panthers players matter more
- ELO Rating — Capitals ELO 1555 vs Panthers ELO 1505 (diff: +50)
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