Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-1 at home this season; Stars are 3-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Avalanche (4-2) in better form than Stars (2-3)
- Injuries. Avalanche healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 4 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Stars defeated the Avalanche 3-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 64% confidence, but the Stars pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a notable factor: Avalanche are 4-1 at home this season; Stars are 3-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (4-2) in better form than Stars (2-3)
- Injuries favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Avalanche have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Stars have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Stars won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Avalanche
Stars
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 64% win probability, while Stars has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.