Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Injuries. Avalanche healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Recent Form. Avalanche (3-2) in better form than Stars (2-2)
- ELO Rating. Stars ELO 1509 vs Avalanche ELO 1542 (diff: -33)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Stars 3-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Avalanche and was a major factor: Avalanche healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Stars and was a notable factor: Stars are 3-1 at home this season; Avalanche are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (3-2) in better form than Stars (2-2)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Stars have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Avalanche have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Stars
Avalanche
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Avalanche healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Avalanche
Stars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Stars has a 43% win probability, while Avalanche has a 57% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.