NHL Analysis
Data-driven win probability analysis for every NHL game. See which factors impact outcomes and understand the reasoning behind the numbers.
NHL win probability is unusually sensitive to goaltending — the starting goalie accounts for roughly 15–20% of the variance in game outcomes, more than any positional player in any other sport. The model confirms goalie starts from official pregame warmups before finalizing probabilities. Beyond goaltending, Corsi and Fenwick (shot attempt differentials at 5v5) measure sustained territorial pressure better than goals, which are heavily luck-influenced in any single game. Back-to-back scheduling, travel, and power-play and penalty-kill efficiency complete the factor set. Home ice is worth approximately 55% win probability in an even matchup, with the advantage increasing in playoff scenarios.
Today's Games
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Goalie matchups. Back-to-backs. Travel fatigue. We quantify what scouts see.
Key Factors in NHL Analysis
What our model considers for predictions
Offensive & Defensive Efficiency
Goals per 60, save percentage, and Corsi measuring team performance
Rest Days & Schedule
Teams on back-to-backs face significant disadvantages
Injury Impact
Key player availability impacts win probability
Home Field Advantage
Playing at home provides a measurable advantage
Head-to-Head History
Historical matchup results between teams