Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins head-to-head
Dallas Stars 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Stars:
- Home Field Advantage. Stars are 5-2 at home this season; Penguins are 2-7 on the road
- Recent Form. Stars (6-3) in better form than Penguins (5-6)
- ELO Rating. Stars ELO 1523 vs Penguins ELO 1494 (diff: +29)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 55% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DAL 60% (−2)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DAL 61% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Penguins at Stars
The Penguins visit the Stars at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Stars a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Penguins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Stars (medium): Stars are 5-2 at home this season; Penguins are 2-7 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Stars (low): Stars (6-3) in better form than Penguins (5-6)
- ELO Rating favors the Stars (low): Stars ELO 1523 vs Penguins ELO 1494 (diff: +29)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
- Recent FormFavors Dallas Stars
- ELO RatingFavors Dallas Stars
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Penguins
Stars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Dallas Stars
- Previous game59%DAL win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Previous game54%NSH win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 22, 2026
- 50%NYR win probability
- 63%TBL win probability
- 51%EDM win probability
- -No model yet
Frequently Asked Questions
Stars has a 62% win probability, while Penguins has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.