Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-2 at home this season; Penguins are 2-4 on the road
- Recent Form. Avalanche (4-2) in better form than Penguins (3-3)
- ELO Rating. Avalanche ELO 1541 vs Penguins ELO 1497 (diff: +44)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Penguins 5-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a notable factor: Avalanche are 4-2 at home this season; Penguins are 2-4 on the road
- Injuries favored the Penguins and was a contributing factor: Penguins less affected by injuries: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 4 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Avalanche playe...
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (4-2) in better form than Penguins (3-3)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Avalanche have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Penguins have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Avalanche
Penguins
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Penguins
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 58% win probability, while Penguins has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.