NBA report card: week of 2026-03-30 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
71.2%
hit rate
0.173
Brier score
37 of 52 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Kings at RaptorsTOR 86.6% pre-game — final TOR 115–SAC 123
- Lakers at MavericksLAL 75.8% pre-game — final DAL 134–LAL 128
- Pacers at BullsCHI 74.4% pre-game — final CHI 126–IND 145
- Pelicans at KingsNOP 69.3% pre-game — final SAC 117–NOP 113
- Trail Blazers at ClippersLAC 64.9% pre-game — final LAC 104–POR 114
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pacers at CavaliersCLE 90.0% pre-game — final CLE 117–IND 108
- Pacers at HornetsCHA 90.0% pre-game — final CHA 129–IND 108
- Bulls at SpursSAS 87.0% pre-game — final SAS 129–CHI 114
- Jazz at ThunderOKC 86.6% pre-game — final OKC 146–UTA 111
- Bucks at RocketsHOU 86.0% pre-game — final HOU 119–MIL 113
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors at Nuggets Mon, Mar 30 | DEN 72.2% · GSW 27.8% | DEN 116–GSW 93 | Hit |
| 76ers at Heat Mon, Mar 30 | MIA 67.7% · PHI 32.4% | MIA 119–PHI 109 | Hit |
| Celtics at Hawks Mon, Mar 30 | ATL 44.4% · BOS 55.6% | ATL 112–BOS 102 | Miss |
| Suns at Grizzlies Tue, Mar 31 | MEM 44.7% · PHX 55.3% | MEM 105–PHX 131 | Hit |
| Bulls at Spurs Tue, Mar 31 | SAS 87.0% · CHI 13.0% | SAS 129–CHI 114 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Mavericks Tue, Mar 31 | DAL 19.3% · MIN 80.7% | DAL 94–MIN 124 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Jazz Tue, Mar 31 | UTA 21.0% · CLE 79.0% | UTA 113–CLE 122 | Hit |
| Pistons at Thunder Tue, Mar 31 | OKC 67.5% · DET 32.5% | OKC 114–DET 110 | Hit |
| Wizards at Lakers Tue, Mar 31 | LAL 58.1% · WSH 41.9% | LAL 120–WSH 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Magic Tue, Mar 31 | ORL 64.2% · PHX 35.8% | ORL 115–PHX 111 | Hit |
| Hornets at Nets Tue, Mar 31 | BKN 18.8% · CHA 81.2% | BKN 86–CHA 117 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Bucks Wed, Apr 1 | MIL 65.9% · DAL 34.1% | MIL 123–DAL 99 | Hit |
| Knicks at Rockets Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 44.9% · NYK 55.1% | HOU 111–NYK 94 | Miss |
| Raptors at Pistons Wed, Apr 1 | DET 72.5% · TOR 27.5% | DET 127–TOR 116 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Lakers Wed, Apr 1 | LAL 45.5% · CLE 54.5% | LAL 127–CLE 113 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Clippers Wed, Apr 1 | LAC 64.9% · POR 35.1% | LAC 104–POR 114 | Miss |
| 76ers at Wizards Wed, Apr 1 | WSH 54.6% · PHI 45.4% | WSH 131–PHI 153 | Miss |
| Hawks at Magic Wed, Apr 1 | ORL 56.0% · ATL 44.0% | ORL 101–ATL 130 | Miss |
| Celtics at Heat Wed, Apr 1 | MIA 52.7% · BOS 47.3% | MIA 129–BOS 147 | Miss |
| Kings at Raptors Thu, Apr 2 | TOR 86.6% · SAC 13.4% | TOR 115–SAC 123 | Miss |
| Bucks at Rockets Thu, Apr 2 | HOU 86.0% · MIL 14.1% | HOU 119–MIL 113 | Hit |
| Knicks at Grizzlies Thu, Apr 2 | MEM 26.5% · NYK 73.5% | MEM 119–NYK 130 | Hit |
| Pacers at Bulls Thu, Apr 2 | CHI 74.4% · IND 25.6% | CHI 126–IND 145 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Jazz Thu, Apr 2 | UTA 18.8% · DEN 81.2% | UTA 117–DEN 130 | Hit |
| Spurs at Warriors Thu, Apr 2 | GSW 26.1% · SAS 73.9% | GSW 113–SAS 127 | Hit |
| Suns at Hornets Thu, Apr 2 | CHA 65.7% · PHX 34.3% | CHA 127–PHX 107 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Pistons Thu, Apr 2 | DET 70.6% · MIN 29.4% | DET 113–MIN 108 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Fri, Apr 3 | OKC 84.9% · LAL 15.1% | OKC 139–LAL 96 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Trail Blazers Fri, Apr 3 | POR 62.9% · NOP 37.1% | POR 118–NOP 106 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Warriors Fri, Apr 3 | GSW 36.5% · CLE 63.4% | GSW 111–CLE 118 | Hit |
| Spurs at Clippers Fri, Apr 3 | LAC 26.2% · SAS 73.8% | LAC 99–SAS 118 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at 76ers Fri, Apr 3 | PHI 39.1% · MIN 60.9% | PHI 115–MIN 103 | Miss |
| Pacers at Hornets Fri, Apr 3 | CHA 90.0% · IND 10.0% | CHA 129–IND 108 | Hit |
| Bulls at Knicks Fri, Apr 3 | NYK 82.4% · CHI 17.6% | NYK 136–CHI 96 | Hit |
| Hawks at Nets Fri, Apr 3 | BKN 32.1% · ATL 67.9% | BKN 107–ATL 141 | Hit |
| Jazz at Rockets Sat, Apr 4 | HOU 73.6% · UTA 26.4% | HOU 140–UTA 106 | Hit |
| Celtics at Bucks Sat, Apr 4 | MIL 18.9% · BOS 81.1% | MIL 101–BOS 133 | Hit |
| Raptors at Grizzlies Sat, Apr 4 | MEM 36.1% · TOR 63.9% | MEM 96–TOR 128 | Hit |
| Magic at Mavericks Sat, Apr 4 | DAL 28.5% · ORL 71.5% | DAL 127–ORL 138 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Kings Sat, Apr 4 | SAC 30.8% · NOP 69.3% | SAC 117–NOP 113 | Miss |
| Wizards at Heat Sat, Apr 4 | MIA 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | MIA 152–WSH 136 | Hit |
| Spurs at Nuggets Sat, Apr 4 | DEN 43.8% · SAS 56.3% | DEN 136–SAS 134 | Miss |
| Pistons at 76ers Sat, Apr 4 | PHI 22.8% · DET 77.2% | PHI 93–DET 116 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Bucks Sun, Apr 5 | MIL 48.2% · MEM 51.8% | MIL 131–MEM 115 | Miss |
| Suns at Bulls Sun, Apr 5 | CHI 41.8% · PHX 58.2% | CHI 110–PHX 120 | Hit |
| Raptors at Celtics Sun, Apr 5 | BOS 76.0% · TOR 24.0% | BOS 115–TOR 101 | Hit |
| Wizards at Nets Sun, Apr 5 | BKN 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | BKN 121–WSH 115 | Hit |
| Pacers at Cavaliers Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 90.0% · IND 10.0% | CLE 117–IND 108 | Hit |
| Magic at Pelicans Sun, Apr 5 | NOP 35.2% · ORL 64.8% | NOP 108–ORL 112 | Hit |
| Hornets at Timberwolves Sun, Apr 5 | MIN 56.5% · CHA 43.5% | MIN 108–CHA 122 | Miss |
| Jazz at Thunder Sun, Apr 5 | OKC 86.6% · UTA 13.4% | OKC 146–UTA 111 | Hit |
| Lakers at Mavericks Sun, Apr 5 | DAL 24.2% · LAL 75.8% | DAL 134–LAL 128 | Miss |
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