Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Offensive Efficiency. Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (114.8 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Nuggets (43-28) in better form than Warriors (33-38)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 52% (−20)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 74% (+2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 66% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DEN 67% (−5)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nuggets defeated the Warriors 116-93.
Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 72% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a major factor: Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (114.8 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nuggets won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormFavors Denver Nuggets
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (114.8 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Nuggets (43-28) in better form than Warriors (33-38)
Turnover Differential
Nuggets turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Warriors
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 72% win probability, while Warriors has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.