Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers 90% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 79% (−11)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 79% (−11)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 85% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 87% (−3)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cavaliers defeated the Pacers 117-108.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 90% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cavaliers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Rest DaysFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Cavaliers
Pacers
Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
Turnover Differential
Cavaliers turnover differential (+0) vs Pacers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Pacers
Cavaliers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cavaliers has a 90% win probability, while Pacers has a 10% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH.