Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Utah Jazz head-to-head
Cleveland Cavaliers 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Jazz (117.3 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 59% (−20)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 70% (−9)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 71% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 78% (−1)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cavaliers defeated the Jazz 122-113.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 79% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a contributing factor: Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Jazz (117.3 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cavaliers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Rest DaysFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Jazz (117.3 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Cavaliers
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Utah Jazz
- Previous game67%PHX win probability
- Next game81%DEN win probability
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Previous game62%CLE win probability
- Next game55%CLE win probability
Other games on Mar 31, 2026
- 55%PHX win probability
- 87%SAS win probability
- 81%MIN win probability
- 67%OKC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 21% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 79% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.