Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Minnesota Timberwolves 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Timberwolves defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Timberwolves (43-28) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 62% (−19)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 67% (−14)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MIN 72% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 78% (−3)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks 124-94.
Our model predicted the Timberwolves would win with 81% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a major factor: Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a major factor: Timberwolves defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Timberwolves and was a notable factor: Timberwolves (43-28) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Recent FormFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Timberwolves defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Timberwolves (43-28) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Timberwolves (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Timberwolves
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 19% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 81% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.