Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 87% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Bulls (115.8 PPG)
- Recent Form. Spurs (53-18) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 70% (−17)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 77% (−10)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 79% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 81% (−6)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Bulls 129-114.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 87% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Bulls (115.8 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs (53-18) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Bulls (115.8 PPG)
Recent Form
Spurs (53-18) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Bulls (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Bulls
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 87% win probability, while Bulls has a 13% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.