Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Pistons (109.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 59% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 61% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 61% (−6)
- If the rest edge were neutral: OKC 66% (−1)
Win probability movement
OKC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Pistons 114-110.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 67% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Pistons (109.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Pistons
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 67% win probability, while Pistons has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.