Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pistons are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Pistons (51-19) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 52% (−19)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 71% (0)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 65% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 65% (−6)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Timberwolves 113-108.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 71% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a contributing factor: Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Pistons
Timberwolves
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Timberwolves (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Timberwolves
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 71% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.