Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls 74% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Bulls:
- Offensive Efficiency. Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Recent Form. Bulls (28-42) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
- Home Field Advantage. Bulls are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHI 58% (−16)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHI 68% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 68% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHI 70% (−4)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pacers defeated the Bulls 145-126.
Our model predicted the Bulls would win with 74% confidence, but the Pacers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Bulls and was a major factor: Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Bulls and was a contributing factor: Bulls (28-42) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bulls and was a contributing factor: Bulls are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pacers won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Bulls
- Recent FormFavors Chicago Bulls
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Bulls
Pacers
Odds by Source
| Source | Bulls | Pacers | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -192 | +160 | -4.5 | 244.5 |
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 | -3 | 246.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Bulls (28-42) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
Defensive Efficiency
Similar defensive efficiency (120.2 vs 120.4 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Bulls turnover differential (+0) vs Pacers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Pacers
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 74% win probability, while Pacers has a 26% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.