Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Celtics (47-23) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 59% (−17)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 70% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 70% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 71% (−5)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Celtics defeated the Raptors 115-101.
Our model predicted the Celtics would win with 76% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Celtics and was a contributing factor: Celtics are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Celtics and was a contributing factor: Celtics (47-23) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Celtics won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- Recent FormFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Celtics
Raptors
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (47-23) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
Offensive Efficiency
Celtics offense (114.4 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Raptors (+0)
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1 factor
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Key Players
Raptors
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 76% win probability, while Raptors has a 24% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.