Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks
Orlando Magic 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Magic:
- Defensive Efficiency. Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Recent Form. Magic (38-32) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 55% (−17)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 62% (−10)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ORL 64% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 71% (−1)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Magic defeated the Mavericks 138-127.
Our model predicted the Magic would win with 72% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a major factor: Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Magic and was a contributing factor: Magic (38-32) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Magic won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Recent FormFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Mavericks
Magic
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Magic (38-32) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Magic (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Magic
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 28% win probability, while Magic has a 72% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.