Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (51-19) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 56% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 69% (−8)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 70% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 76% (−1)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the 76ers 116-93.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 77% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons (51-19) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia 76ers
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Pistons
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
76ers
Pistons
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
Turnover Differential
76ers turnover differential (+0) vs Pistons (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Pistons
76ers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
76ers has a 23% win probability, while Pistons has a 77% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.