Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Celtics defeated the Heat 147-129.
Our model predicted the Heat would win with 53% confidence, but the Celtics pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Heat and was a major factor: Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Heat and was a notable factor: Heat are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Celtics won convincingly
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Heat
Celtics
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Heat | Celtics | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +164 | -198 | +5.5 | 228.5 |
| FanDuel | +1800 | -10000 | +20.5 | 252.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (47-23) in better form than Heat (38-33)
Turnover Differential
Heat turnover differential (+0) vs Celtics (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Celtics
Heat
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Heat has a 53% win probability, while Celtics has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.