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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

NBAregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Heat logo
Heat
Miami
119
vs
76ers logo
76ers
Philadelphia
109
MIA 68%32% PHI
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

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VenueKaseya Center
Miami, FL

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

76ers (away)
Heat (home)
32%
Win probability
68%
0
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Heat defeated the 76ers 119-109.

Our model predicted the Heat would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Offensive Efficiency favored the Heat and was a major factor: Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
  • Defensive Efficiency favored the 76ers and was a contributing factor: 76ers defense (116.1 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Heat and was a contributing factor: Heat are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Heat won 119-109

Heat won comfortably

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Heat at 68%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

PHI
MIA
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
Recent Form
Favours PHI|Favours MIA

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Offensive Efficiency

Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)

Heat

Defensive Efficiency

76ers defense (116.1 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)

76ers

Recent Form

Heat (38-33) in better form than 76ers (39-32)

Heat

Turnover Differential

Heat turnover differential (+0) vs 76ers (+0)

Neutral
Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 3/30/2026, 8:30:01 AM

Key Players

76ers

VJ EdgecombeG
Quentin GrimesG
Kyle LowryG
Kelly Oubre Jr.G
Tyrese MartinG

Heat

Tyler HerroG
Kasparas JakucionisG
Trevor KeelsG
Pelle LarssonG
Davion MitchellG

Frequently Asked Questions

Heat has a 68% win probability, while 76ers has a 32% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.

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