San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Spurs (53-18) in better form than Nuggets (43-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 40% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 60% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 57% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nuggets defeated the Spurs 136-134.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 56% confidence, but the Nuggets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Spurs (118.8 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nuggets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Rest DaysFavors Denver Nuggets
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Nuggets
Spurs
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Spurs (118.8 PPG)
Recent Form
Spurs (53-18) in better form than Nuggets (43-28)
Turnover Differential
Nuggets turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Spurs
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 44% win probability, while Spurs has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.