New York Knicks at Houston Rockets
New York Knicks 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Knicks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
- Recent Form. Knicks (46-25) in better form than Rockets (43-27)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 45% (−10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYK 57% (+2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 55% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYK 53% (−2)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockets defeated the Knicks 111-94.
Our model predicted the Knicks would win with 55% confidence, but the Rockets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockets and was a contributing factor: Rockets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a contributing factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (110.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockets won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Rockets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormFavors New York Knicks
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Knicks
Rockets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockets has a 45% win probability, while Knicks has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston, TX.