Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors 87% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Raptors offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.8 PPG)
- Recent Form. Raptors (39-30) in better form than Kings (18-53)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 69% (−18)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 76% (−11)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 78% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 80% (−7)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kings defeated the Raptors 123-115.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 87% confidence, but the Kings won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.8 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors (39-30) in better form than Kings (18-53)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kings won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Rest DaysFavors Sacramento Kings
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Raptors
Kings
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Raptors offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.8 PPG)
Recent Form
Raptors (39-30) in better form than Kings (18-53)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Kings (+0)
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Key Players
Kings
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 87% win probability, while Kings has a 13% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.