Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Los Angeles Lakers 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lakers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Lakers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Recent Form. Lakers (46-25) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAL 61% (−15)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAL 63% (−13)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: LAL 68% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAL 75% (−1)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mavericks defeated the Lakers 134-128.
Our model predicted the Lakers would win with 76% confidence, but the Mavericks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lakers and was a major factor: Lakers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Lakers and was a notable factor: Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lakers and was a notable factor: Lakers (46-25) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mavericks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Recent FormFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Rest DaysFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Mavericks
Lakers
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Lakers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Lakers (46-25) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Lakers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Lakers
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 24% win probability, while Lakers has a 76% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.