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Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks

NBAregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Bucks logo
Bucks
Milwaukee
131
vs
Grizzlies logo
Grizzlies
Memphis
115
MIL 48%52% MEM
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

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VenueFiserv Forum
Milwaukee, WI

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Grizzlies (away)
Bucks (home)
52%
Win probability
48%
1
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Bucks defeated the Grizzlies 131-115.

Our model predicted the Grizzlies would win with 52% confidence, but the Bucks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Offensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a major factor: Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.0 PPG)
  • Defensive Efficiency favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks defense (116.2 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.7 Opp PPG)
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks are 0-0 at home this season

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Bucks won 131-115

Bucks won convincingly

Prediction IncorrectWe predicted Grizzlies at 52%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MEM
MIL
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
Favours MEM|Favours MIL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Bucks

Our Model48%

Grizzlies

Our Model52%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Offensive Efficiency

Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.0 PPG)

Grizzlies

Defensive Efficiency

Bucks defense (116.2 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.7 Opp PPG)

Bucks

Recent Form

Similar form: Bucks (29-41) vs Grizzlies (24-46)

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Bucks turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)

Neutral
Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 4/5/2026, 8:30:01 AM

Key Players

Grizzlies

Kentavious Caldwell-PopeG
Adama BalG
Walter Clayton Jr.G
Ty JeromeG
Jahmai MashackG

Bucks

AJ GreenG
Gary HarrisG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Andre Jackson Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

Frequently Asked Questions

Bucks has a 48% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.

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