Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 73% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pistons are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 59% (−14)
- If the rest edge were neutral: DET 75% (+2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 61% (−12)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 65% (−8)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Raptors 127-116.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 73% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors rest advantage (2 days rest) over Pistons (back-to-back)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Raptors
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Raptors rest advantage (2 days rest) over Pistons (back-to-back)
1 factor
Key Players
Raptors
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 73% win probability, while Raptors has a 27% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.