NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-03-30 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 71% across 52 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 87% — final TOR 115–SAC 123
- Defensive Efficiency (favors TOR)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors TOR)
- Recent Form (favors TOR)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors at Nuggets Mon, Mar 30 | DEN 72% • GSW 28% | DEN 116–GSW 93 | Hit |
| 76ers at Heat Mon, Mar 30 | MIA 68% • PHI 32% | MIA 119–PHI 109 | Hit |
| Celtics at Hawks Mon, Mar 30 | ATL 44% • BOS 56% | ATL 112–BOS 102 | Miss |
| Suns at Grizzlies Tue, Mar 31 | MEM 45% • PHX 55% | MEM 105–PHX 131 | Hit |
| Bulls at Spurs Tue, Mar 31 | SAS 87% • CHI 13% | SAS 129–CHI 114 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Mavericks Tue, Mar 31 | DAL 19% • MIN 81% | DAL 94–MIN 124 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Jazz Tue, Mar 31 | UTA 21% • CLE 79% | UTA 113–CLE 122 | Hit |
| Pistons at Thunder Tue, Mar 31 | OKC 67% • DET 33% | OKC 114–DET 110 | Hit |
| Wizards at Lakers Tue, Mar 31 | LAL 58% • WSH 42% | LAL 120–WSH 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Magic Tue, Mar 31 | ORL 64% • PHX 36% | ORL 115–PHX 111 | Hit |
| Hornets at Nets Tue, Mar 31 | BKN 19% • CHA 81% | BKN 86–CHA 117 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Bucks Wed, Apr 1 | MIL 66% • DAL 34% | MIL 123–DAL 99 | Hit |
| Knicks at Rockets Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 45% • NYK 55% | HOU 111–NYK 94 | Miss |
| Raptors at Pistons Wed, Apr 1 | DET 73% • TOR 27% | DET 127–TOR 116 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Lakers Wed, Apr 1 | LAL 45% • CLE 55% | LAL 127–CLE 113 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Clippers Wed, Apr 1 | LAC 65% • POR 35% | LAC 104–POR 114 | Miss |
| 76ers at Wizards Wed, Apr 1 | WSH 55% • PHI 45% | WSH 131–PHI 153 | Miss |
| Hawks at Magic Wed, Apr 1 | ORL 56% • ATL 44% | ORL 101–ATL 130 | Miss |
| Celtics at Heat Wed, Apr 1 | MIA 53% • BOS 47% | MIA 129–BOS 147 | Miss |
| Kings at Raptors Thu, Apr 2 | TOR 87% • SAC 13% | TOR 115–SAC 123 | Miss |
| Bucks at Rockets Thu, Apr 2 | HOU 86% • MIL 14% | HOU 119–MIL 113 | Hit |
| Knicks at Grizzlies Thu, Apr 2 | MEM 27% • NYK 74% | MEM 119–NYK 130 | Hit |
| Pacers at Bulls Thu, Apr 2 | CHI 74% • IND 26% | CHI 126–IND 145 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Jazz Thu, Apr 2 | UTA 19% • DEN 81% | UTA 117–DEN 130 | Hit |
| Spurs at Warriors Thu, Apr 2 | GSW 26% • SAS 74% | GSW 113–SAS 127 | Hit |
| Suns at Hornets Thu, Apr 2 | CHA 66% • PHX 34% | CHA 127–PHX 107 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Pistons Thu, Apr 2 | DET 71% • MIN 29% | DET 113–MIN 108 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Fri, Apr 3 | OKC 85% • LAL 15% | OKC 139–LAL 96 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Trail Blazers Fri, Apr 3 | POR 63% • NOP 37% | POR 118–NOP 106 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Warriors Fri, Apr 3 | GSW 37% • CLE 63% | GSW 111–CLE 118 | Hit |
| Spurs at Clippers Fri, Apr 3 | LAC 26% • SAS 74% | LAC 99–SAS 118 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at 76ers Fri, Apr 3 | PHI 39% • MIN 61% | PHI 115–MIN 103 | Miss |
| Pacers at Hornets Fri, Apr 3 | CHA 90% • IND 10% | CHA 129–IND 108 | Hit |
| Bulls at Knicks Fri, Apr 3 | NYK 82% • CHI 18% | NYK 136–CHI 96 | Hit |
| Hawks at Nets Fri, Apr 3 | BKN 32% • ATL 68% | BKN 107–ATL 141 | Hit |
| Jazz at Rockets Sat, Apr 4 | HOU 74% • UTA 26% | HOU 140–UTA 106 | Hit |
| Celtics at Bucks Sat, Apr 4 | MIL 19% • BOS 81% | MIL 101–BOS 133 | Hit |
| Raptors at Grizzlies Sat, Apr 4 | MEM 36% • TOR 64% | MEM 96–TOR 128 | Hit |
| Magic at Mavericks Sat, Apr 4 | DAL 28% • ORL 72% | DAL 127–ORL 138 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Kings Sat, Apr 4 | SAC 31% • NOP 69% | SAC 117–NOP 113 | Miss |
| Wizards at Heat Sat, Apr 4 | MIA 56% • WSH 44% | MIA 152–WSH 136 | Hit |
| Spurs at Nuggets Sat, Apr 4 | DEN 44% • SAS 56% | DEN 136–SAS 134 | Miss |
| Pistons at 76ers Sat, Apr 4 | PHI 23% • DET 77% | PHI 93–DET 116 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Bucks Sun, Apr 5 | MIL 48% • MEM 52% | MIL 131–MEM 115 | Miss |
| Suns at Bulls Sun, Apr 5 | CHI 42% • PHX 58% | CHI 110–PHX 120 | Hit |
| Raptors at Celtics Sun, Apr 5 | BOS 76% • TOR 24% | BOS 115–TOR 101 | Hit |
| Wizards at Nets Sun, Apr 5 | BKN 56% • WSH 44% | BKN 121–WSH 115 | Hit |
| Pacers at Cavaliers Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 90% • IND 10% | CLE 117–IND 108 | Hit |
| Magic at Pelicans Sun, Apr 5 | NOP 35% • ORL 65% | NOP 108–ORL 112 | Hit |
| Hornets at Timberwolves Sun, Apr 5 | MIN 56% • CHA 44% | MIN 108–CHA 122 | Miss |
| Jazz at Thunder Sun, Apr 5 | OKC 87% • UTA 13% | OKC 146–UTA 111 | Hit |
| Lakers at Mavericks Sun, Apr 5 | DAL 24% • LAL 76% | DAL 134–LAL 128 | Miss |