NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-10-05 (2026-27)
Hit rate this week: 62% across 50 games; season-to-date: 59%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 78% — final COL 3–TOR 6
- Injuries (favors COL)
- Home Field Advantage (favors COL)
- Recent Form (favors COL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flames at Kraken Mon, Oct 5 | SEA 69% • CGY 31% | SEA 6–CGY 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Ducks Mon, Oct 5 | ANA 60% • FLA 40% | ANA 3–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Canucks Mon, Oct 5 | VAN 32% • VGK 68% | VAN 2–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Lightning Mon, Oct 5 | TBL 61% • PHI 39% | TBL 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Senators at Bruins Mon, Oct 5 | BOS 67% • OTT 33% | BOS 1–OTT 4 | Miss |
| Jets at Penguins Mon, Oct 5 | PIT 74% • WPG 26% | PIT 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Sharks at Stars Tue, Oct 6 | DAL 57% • SJS 43% | DAL 5–SJS 0 | Hit |
| Predators at Maple Leafs Tue, Oct 6 | TOR 43% • NSH 57% | TOR 5–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Senators at Red Wings Tue, Oct 6 | DET 48% • OTT 52% | DET 5–OTT 3 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Devils Tue, Oct 6 | NJD 43% • UTA 57% | NJD 3–UTA 5 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Tue, Oct 6 | MTL 45% • CAR 55% | MTL 4–CAR 6 | Hit |
| Wild at Sabres Tue, Oct 6 | BUF 39% • MIN 61% | BUF 3–MIN 2 | Miss |
| Islanders at Rangers Tue, Oct 6 | NYR 67% • NYI 33% | NYR 5–NYI 2 | Hit |
| Blues at Blackhawks Wed, Oct 7 | CHI 59% • STL 41% | CHI 4–STL 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Kraken Wed, Oct 7 | SEA 50% • VGK 51% | SEA 2–VGK 6 | Hit |
| Panthers at Kings Wed, Oct 7 | LAK 55% • FLA 45% | LAK 1–FLA 2 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Wed, Oct 7 | WPG 45% • COL 55% | WPG 3–COL 2 | Miss |
| Penguins at Capitals Wed, Oct 7 | WSH 55% • PIT 45% | WSH 5–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Thu, Oct 8 | ANA 68% • EDM 32% | ANA 2–EDM 5 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Bruins Thu, Oct 8 | BOS 53% • UTA 47% | BOS 6–UTA 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Senators Thu, Oct 8 | OTT 56% • PHI 44% | OTT 2–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Predators at Canadiens Thu, Oct 8 | MTL 49% • NSH 51% | MTL 2–NSH 5 | Hit |
| Wild at Lightning Thu, Oct 8 | TBL 66% • MIN 34% | TBL 3–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Sabres Thu, Oct 8 | BUF 53% • DAL 47% | BUF 0–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Canucks at Hurricanes Thu, Oct 8 | CAR 73% • VAN 27% | CAR 7–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Islanders Thu, Oct 8 | NYI 67% • CHI 33% | NYI 4–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blues Fri, Oct 9 | STL 68% • SJS 32% | STL 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Flames Fri, Oct 9 | CGY 60% • COL 40% | CGY 3–COL 7 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Golden Knights Fri, Oct 9 | VGK 74% • TOR 26% | VGK 4–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Penguins at Blue Jackets Fri, Oct 9 | CBJ 68% • PIT 32% | CBJ 3–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Capitals Fri, Oct 9 | WSH 42% • NYR 58% | WSH 3–NYR 1 | Miss |
| Kraken at Red Wings Fri, Oct 9 | DET 48% • SEA 52% | DET 3–SEA 6 | Hit |
| Ducks at Jets Sat, Oct 10 | WPG 47% • ANA 53% | WPG 1–ANA 5 | Hit |
| Flyers at Bruins Sat, Oct 10 | BOS 76% • PHI 24% | BOS 5–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Canucks at Devils Sat, Oct 10 | NJD 74% • VAN 26% | NJD 4–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Oilers at Sharks Sat, Oct 10 | SJS 62% • EDM 38% | SJS 1–EDM 3 | Miss |
| Wild at Panthers Sat, Oct 10 | FLA 68% • MIN 32% | FLA 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Penguins Sat, Oct 10 | PIT 63% • DAL 37% | PIT 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Sabres Sat, Oct 10 | BUF 41% • UTA 59% | BUF 1–UTA 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Avalanche Sat, Oct 10 | COL 78% • TOR 22% | COL 3–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Canadiens Sat, Oct 10 | MTL 46% • DET 54% | MTL 1–DET 0 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Blues Sat, Oct 10 | STL 37% • CBJ 63% | STL 5–CBJ 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Senators Sat, Oct 10 | OTT 61% • NSH 39% | OTT 3–NSH 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blackhawks Sat, Oct 10 | CHI 39% • CAR 61% | CHI 2–CAR 5 | Hit |
| Lightning at Islanders Sat, Oct 10 | NYI 52% • TBL 48% | NYI 3–TBL 5 | Miss |
| Kings at Golden Knights Sun, Oct 11 | VGK 78% • LAK 22% | VGK 2–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Ducks at Flames Sun, Oct 11 | CGY 49% • ANA 51% | CGY 2–ANA 4 | Hit |
| Kraken at Capitals Sun, Oct 11 | WSH 59% • SEA 41% | WSH 3–SEA 5 | Miss |
| Canucks at Rangers Sun, Oct 11 | NYR 77% • VAN 23% | NYR 6–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sun, Oct 11 | PHI 35% • CAR 65% | PHI 1–CAR 4 | Hit |