NHL report card: week of 2026-03-23 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
50.9%
hit rate
0.253
Brier score
29 of 57 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Jets at AvalancheCOL 64.7% pre-game — final COL 2–WPG 4
- Canadiens at HurricanesCAR 62.3% pre-game — final CAR 1–MTL 3
- Maple Leafs at BruinsBOS 59.0% pre-game — final BOS 2–TOR 4
- Oilers at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 58.4% pre-game — final UTA 2–EDM 5
- Sharks at Blue JacketsCBJ 58.2% pre-game — final CBJ 2–SJS 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Predators at LightningTBL 69.0% pre-game — final TBL 3–NSH 2
- Kings at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 60.7% pre-game — final UTA 4–LAK 3
- Senators at LightningTBL 60.7% pre-game — final TBL 4–OTT 2
- Canucks at FlamesCGY 59.2% pre-game — final CGY 7–VAN 3
- Panthers at IslandersNYI 59.0% pre-game — final NYI 5–FLA 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning at Flames Mon, Mar 23 | CGY 48.3% · TBL 51.7% | CGY 4–TBL 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Ducks Mon, Mar 23 | ANA 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | ANA 6–BUF 5 | Hit |
| Kings at Utah Hockey Club Mon, Mar 23 | UTA 60.7% · LAK 39.3% | UTA 4–LAK 3 | Hit |
| Senators at Rangers Mon, Mar 23 | NYR 56.3% · OTT 43.7% | NYR 1–OTT 2 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Flyers Tue, Mar 24 | PHI 56.3% · CBJ 43.7% | PHI 2–CBJ 3 | Miss |
| Senators at Red Wings Tue, Mar 24 | DET 56.3% · OTT 43.7% | DET 2–OTT 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Tue, Mar 24 | MTL 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | MTL 5–CAR 2 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Bruins Tue, Mar 24 | BOS 59.0% · TOR 41.0% | BOS 2–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Islanders Tue, Mar 24 | NYI 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | NYI 3–CHI 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Penguins Tue, Mar 24 | PIT 56.3% · COL 43.7% | PIT 2–COL 6 | Miss |
| Kraken at Panthers Tue, Mar 24 | FLA 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | FLA 5–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Wild at Lightning Tue, Mar 24 | TBL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | TBL 6–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Devils at Stars Wed, Mar 25 | DAL 56.3% · NJD 43.7% | DAL 4–NJD 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Jets Wed, Mar 25 | WPG 54.5% · VGK 45.5% | WPG 4–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Capitals at Blues Wed, Mar 25 | STL 51.1% · WSH 48.9% | STL 3–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Sharks at Predators Wed, Mar 25 | NSH 55.4% · SJS 44.6% | NSH 6–SJS 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Flames Wed, Mar 25 | CGY 55.3% · LAK 44.7% | CGY 3–LAK 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Utah Hockey Club Wed, Mar 25 | UTA 58.4% · EDM 41.6% | UTA 2–EDM 5 | Miss |
| Ducks at Canucks Wed, Mar 25 | VAN 48.7% · ANA 51.3% | VAN 3–ANA 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Maple Leafs Wed, Mar 25 | TOR 54.6% · NYR 45.4% | TOR 4–NYR 3 | Hit |
| Bruins at Sabres Wed, Mar 25 | BUF 58.1% · BOS 41.9% | BUF 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Lightning Thu, Mar 26 | TBL 54.6% · SEA 45.4% | TBL 3–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Penguins at Senators Thu, Mar 26 | OTT 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | OTT 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Islanders Thu, Mar 26 | NYI 58.1% · DAL 41.9% | NYI 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Flyers Thu, Mar 26 | PHI 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | PHI 5–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Panthers Thu, Mar 26 | FLA 58.1% · MIN 41.9% | FLA 2–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Canadiens Thu, Mar 26 | MTL 57.4% · CBJ 42.6% | MTL 2–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Devils at Predators Fri, Mar 27 | NSH 55.4% · NJD 44.6% | NSH 2–NJD 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Fri, Mar 27 | WPG 45.8% · COL 54.2% | WPG 2–COL 3 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blues Fri, Mar 27 | STL 53.6% · SJS 46.4% | STL 2–SJS 1 | Hit |
| Capitals at Utah Hockey Club Fri, Mar 27 | UTA 56.0% · WSH 44.0% | UTA 4–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Ducks at Flames Fri, Mar 27 | CGY 54.3% · ANA 45.7% | CGY 2–ANA 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Golden Knights Fri, Mar 27 | VGK 55.5% · EDM 44.5% | VGK 3–EDM 4 | Miss |
| Kings at Canucks Fri, Mar 27 | VAN 51.4% · LAK 48.6% | VAN 0–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Sabres Fri, Mar 27 | BUF 54.2% · DET 45.8% | BUF 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Rangers Fri, Mar 27 | NYR 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | NYR 6–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Islanders Sat, Mar 28 | NYI 59.0% · FLA 41.0% | NYI 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Senators at Lightning Sat, Mar 28 | TBL 60.7% · OTT 39.3% | TBL 4–OTT 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Oilers Sat, Mar 28 | EDM 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | EDM 4–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blue Jackets Sat, Mar 28 | CBJ 58.2% · SJS 41.8% | CBJ 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Devils at Hurricanes Sat, Mar 28 | CAR 58.5% · NJD 41.5% | CAR 5–NJD 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Penguins Sat, Mar 28 | PIT 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | PIT 3–DAL 6 | Miss |
| Wild at Bruins Sat, Mar 28 | BOS 58.1% · MIN 41.9% | BOS 6–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Kraken at Sabres Sat, Mar 28 | BUF 50.2% · SEA 49.8% | BUF 3–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Predators Sat, Mar 28 | NSH 50.7% · MTL 49.3% | NSH 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Blues Sat, Mar 28 | STL 52.4% · TOR 47.6% | STL 5–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Jets at Avalanche Sat, Mar 28 | COL 64.7% · WPG 35.3% | COL 2–WPG 4 | Miss |
| Flyers at Red Wings Sun, Mar 29 | DET 54.6% · PHI 45.4% | DET 3–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Kings Sun, Mar 29 | LAK 50.2% · UTA 49.8% | LAK 2–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Canucks at Flames Sun, Mar 29 | CGY 59.2% · VAN 40.8% | CGY 7–VAN 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Golden Knights Sun, Mar 29 | VGK 55.7% · WSH 44.3% | VGK 4–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Rangers Sun, Mar 29 | NYR 56.3% · FLA 43.7% | NYR 3–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Sun, Mar 29 | CAR 62.3% · MTL 37.8% | CAR 1–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Lightning Sun, Mar 29 | TBL 69.0% · NSH 31.0% | TBL 3–NSH 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Blue Jackets Sun, Mar 29 | CBJ 55.1% · BOS 44.9% | CBJ 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Devils Sun, Mar 29 | NJD 54.6% · CHI 45.4% | NJD 5–CHI 3 | Hit |
| Stars at Flyers Sun, Mar 29 | PHI 50.2% · DAL 49.8% | PHI 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
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