Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 50% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: TBL 56% (+1)
Win probability movement
TBL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kraken defeated the Lightning 4-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 55% confidence, but the Kraken won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Kraken and was a contributing factor: Kraken rest advantage (2 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Lightning (0 out) vs Kraken (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kraken won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Rest DaysFavors Seattle Kraken
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Kraken
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 55% win probability, while Kraken has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.