Florida Panthers at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYI 54% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 56% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYI 57% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 58% (−1)
Win probability movement
NYI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Panthers 5-2.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Islanders (35-23) vs Panthers (31-29)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Panthers
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 59% win probability, while Panthers has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.