Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Blues:
- Home Field Advantage. Blues are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: STL 48% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: STL 53% (+2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: STL 53% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: STL 53% (+2)
Win probability movement
STL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blues defeated the Capitals 3-0.
Our model predicted the Blues would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blues and was a notable factor: Blues are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Blues (2.6 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals defense (2.9 Opp PPG) better than Blues (3.4 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blues won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Blues
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Capitals
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormFavors Washington Capitals
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Capitals
Blues
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Blues has a 51% win probability, while Capitals has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO.