Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Bruins:
- Home Field Advantage. Bruins are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Bruins (34-22) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Defensive Efficiency. Bruins defense (3.1 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 55% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 56% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 57% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 57% (−2)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Bruins 4-2.
Our model predicted the Bruins would win with 59% confidence, but the Maple Leafs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins (34-22) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins defense (3.1 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Bruins
- Recent FormFavors Boston Bruins
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Bruins
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Bruins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bruins has a 59% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.