Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Senators (3.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Lightning (38-18) in better form than Senators (30-22)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 55% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 57% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 58% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 59% (−2)
Win probability movement
TBL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Senators 4-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Senators (3.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Senators (30-22)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Senators
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 61% win probability, while Senators has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.