Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Golden Knights:
- Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: VGK 52% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 54% (−1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 56% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: VGK 55% (0)
Win probability movement
VGK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Oilers defeated the Golden Knights 4-3.
Our model predicted the Golden Knights would win with 55% confidence, but the Oilers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.1 vs 3.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.3 vs 3.5 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Oilers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Oilers
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 55% win probability, while Oilers has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.