Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Flyers:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: PHI 56% (+6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHI 46% (−4)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flyers defeated the Stars 2-1.
Our model predicted the Flyers would win with 50% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Stars and was a major factor: Stars rest advantage (1 day rest) over Flyers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flyers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flyers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Dallas Stars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Flyers
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Stars rest advantage (1 day rest) over Flyers (back-to-back)
1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Flyers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flyers has a 50% win probability, while Stars has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.