Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: EDM 52% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 55% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: EDM 56% (0)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 55% (−1)
Win probability movement
EDM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Oilers defeated the Ducks 4-2.
Our model predicted the Oilers would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a contributing factor: Oilers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.5 vs 3.3 PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Oilers (30-25) vs Ducks (35-24)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Oilers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Ducks
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 56% win probability, while Ducks has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.