Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins head-to-head
Ottawa Senators 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OTT 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
OTT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Penguins defeated the Senators 4-3.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 56% confidence, but the Penguins won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Penguins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Penguins
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Ottawa Senators
- Previous game56%DET win probability
- Next game61%TBL win probability
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Previous game56%PIT win probability
- Next game56%PIT win probability
Other games on Mar 26, 2026
- 55%TBL win probability
- 58%NYI win probability
- 56%PHI win probability
- 58%FLA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 56% win probability, while Penguins has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.