Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Penguins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
PIT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Stars defeated the Penguins 6-3.
Our model predicted the Penguins would win with 56% confidence, but the Stars won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Penguins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Penguins (0 out) vs Stars (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Penguins (1 day rest) vs Stars (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Stars won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Penguins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Penguins has a 56% win probability, while Stars has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.